Just before the budget, bad news for Modi, with a 6.5% growth rate, could come down to 4-year low level GDP

New Delhi. The growth rate of the Indian economy can give a major setback to the central government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. According to the advance estimate of GDP released by the CSO, the GDP growth in the fiscal year 2017-18 can be 6.5 percent, which is the lowest level of the last four years ie Modi government's tenure. It is clear from this that there is a big challenge before the government before the general budget to be introduced on February 1. On one hand, the government is preparing to accelerate growth in Infra sector and Rural India. In such a situation, it will be a big challenge to bring the track to the GDP growth. So far budget has been prepared to a large extent, but it is believed that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley may have to re-think on the planning of the budget.



GDP accounting

Fiscal year growth
2014-15 7.5%
2015-16 8%
2016-17
7.1%

2017-18 6.5% *
* Estimates of CSO



Expected to improve in October-March half year: CSO

- TCA Anant said, "GDP growth is expected to be better during October-March half year compared to the half-September half year, and he believed that GST has had some impact on the overall growth of 2018."

Anant said, "When we first released the Quarter Estimates, we had said that GST is going to be implemented from July 1, so its impact will be on manufacturing. Since the first quarter is part of the whole year, the same is involved in manufacturing. '

- Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Garg on the estimation of the CSO said that 6.5 percent growth in 2017-18 means that growth in the second half of the financial year will be 7 percent.





Chidambaram raises the question - How can now 20 million jobs every year

After the arrival of GDP Estimate, former Finance Minister P Chidambaram has said that our apprehensions and warnings have been proved right. Chidambaram tweeted that the estimated GDP growth figures for 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18 are 8, 7.1 and 6.5 percent, respectively. These figures show that the economy has slowdown status.

He questioned, will the government still claim that India's growth rate is strong? How will jobs be generated from this and how can you promise to give 20 million jobs every year?



Agriculture and industry slowdown

According to the first Advance Estimate released for CSO 2017-18, "The impact of slowdown in agriculture and industry can be on GDP.Industrial growth is expected to decline to 4.4% in 2017-18, while during the last financial year Growth of agriculture (agriculture, forestry and fishing) is estimated to be 2.11%, while growth in 2016-17 was 4.9%. "





Hope to improve service sector

"Estimates said," The growth of the service sector can be 8.3%, while in the year 2016-17 the figure was 7.7%. The key reason for slowdown in economic growth in 2017-18 is to implement GST and November 2016 The ban was enforced in that, so that business activites were greatly affected. "





GVA growth is also estimated to be sluggish

- "Gross Value Added (GVA) Growth at Basic Price in 2017-18 is estimated to be 6.1%, compared to 6.6% in the last year. GVA is calculated on GVA basis, and calculating GDP by reducing Subsidies India's GDP growth in 2017-18 is far less than expected. "





What do the EXPERTS say?



Difficult to cross 7%: Ghosh

Sungy Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economists of SBI Research, said, "It is difficult to cross the 7% figure of the GDP in this fiscal year." In the third and fourth quarters, the economy can do some better performance.GDP growth on unchanged base year Ghosh said that if the past year's expansion is revived downwards then growth can increase, as growth in 2017-18 on the lower base of last year Tall will be. "





Growth will be around 6.3 percent: Ahluwalia

- Former Deputy Chairman Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia said that GDP growth will be between 6.2% to 6.3% in the current financial year.

- Axis Bank's Chief Economist Sujit Bhattacharya said that this year the Gross Value Added (GVA) will be between 6.6-6.8%.

- He said, "We have not included tax collections for the current financial year, but if tax collection is good, then GDP growth can be high."



Growth: between 6 to 6.5%

- Former Planning Commission member and senior economist Abhijit Sen said, "GDP growth will be in the range of 6 to 6.5% in 2018. After the implementation of GST, there are flaws in tax collection."

- He doubted the PMI's statistics and figures showing the economy's good picture.