Why N. Korea weapons program was scarier in 2017

Why N. Korea weapons program was scarier in 2017



Just a few years ago, North Korea's weapons program was treated as a bad joke, better known for its duds, misfires, and fakes than its ability to threaten the United States.

But in 2017, the North Korean weapons program stopped being funny. Instead, Pyongyang's persistent pursuit of ballistic missile and nuclear weapons technology led to serious talk about a devastating conflict between the United States and North Korea.

This change was due to a sudden surge in North Korean tests or a change in leader Kim Jong Un's stance. In fact, data collected by researchers show that the number of tests in 2017 is similar to the number last year, while the bellicose threats made against the United States and others are consistent.

Building on decades of tests, North Korea has made remarkable technological gains in the past year, despite diplomatic and economic isolation. In the space of just a few months, Pyongyang conducted tests that showed it had reached the range of its ballistic missiles and increased the yield of its nuclear weapons, as well as other more subtle advances that shocked the observers.
A giant nuclear weapons test

North Korea tested only one nuclear weapon this year, as opposed to two last year, However, the size of the weapon is tested on Sept. 3 dwarfed all previous tests - most experts agree that the bomb's yield, or the energy generated by the blast, was at least 140 kilotons Some respected analysts have even pegged it at 250 kilotons.
If the higher estimate is true, that would mean that North Korea has a bomb almost 17 times the size of the one that was dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, in 1945. For comparison, the biggest weapon tested by North Korea 10 kilotons and 20 kilotons.

David Wright, co-director of the global security program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said he believes that the Sept. 3 bomb was a "real H-Bomb" - suggesting that North Korea was not lying when it was made. If this is true, it shows that North Korea has now mastered the more complicated technology that entered the U.S. and Soviet arsenals in the 1950s after the first wave of nuclear weapons.

Such a device can be used to dramatically increases the damage. It also could mean that North Korea's missile systems can afford to be significantly less accurate when used in real-life attack because the blast itself will be so bigger
An increased missile range

Although North Korea has conducted only one nuclear test in 2017, it has conducted at least 20 missile tests.
In July, experts warned that some of its long-range missiles looked like intercontinental ballistic missiles - meaning that they would have a range of 3,400 miles Those fears were confirmed on Nov. 28, when North Korea tested its Hwasong-15 missile This enormous missile flew 54 minutes and traveled about 596 miles on a lofted trajectory. Its possible range was 8,100 miles - which would include the whole United States.

The advance is significant - last year, the longest-range missile of North Korea was tested in a range of just 2,500 miles. Wright notes that the old missile, known as the Musudan, was the first that had gone significantly the Scud missile technology first developed by the Soviets but that it was with reliability issues. After failed tests in 2016, North Korea has started shutting down

It is not clear whether North Korea can make a thermonuclear device small enough to fit the new missile, but many suspects that North Korea will soon gain this ability - if it has not already "I believe we have to assume it can," James M. Acton, a physicist, and co-director of the nuclear program for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told The Washington Post shortly after Sept. 3 test.
More new missiles tested


North Korea's missile program has been around for decades, but the sheer number of new missiles unveiled in 2017. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at a research associate, Shea Cotton, said: "This year did not see a record number of strategic missile tests, but it did see a record number of new missiles." "In fact, most of the missile systems tested this year had not seen before."



In just one year, Cotton said, Kim Jong Un has unveiled six new missile systems, In contrast, his father, Kim Jong Il, tested only two new missiles during his time as leader, and North Korean founder Kim Il Sung tested three. "While I'm sure most of these new systems have been in the works for the past few years," Cotton said of this year's tests, "I'll give credit where credit is due That is impressive as hell. "
Others agreed. "From the late 1980s to 2016, all we saw were variants of Soviet Scuds," Wright said, but North Korea's missiles were now starting to look like modern missiles, moving objects like movable nozzles on their engines to steer the missiles. Importantly, two of the land-based missiles tested this year - the KN-15s - used solid fuel, rather than liquid fuel.
This is a significant development as solid fuel cannot be left in a missile, meaning that it does not have to be fueled before it is launched.
"Solid-fueled missiles can be launched much more quickly and from mobile launchers, thereby enhancing the survivability of Pyongyang's missile arsenal," said Kingston Reif, Director of Disarmament and the Arms Control Association at the risk reduction policy. "The ability to load and launch with the minimal warning was put on the ability of the missile defense to get an early track on the missile."
What's next?

North Korea's arms program advances in 2017 were not widely anticipated. But what about 2018? If North Korea continues on its current course without being interrupted, experts think it will make further advances within a year
North Korea may test new missile technology, such as another that uses solid-state fuel, further advancing how missiles will be in a real-life setting. It may also conduct more military exercises around missile launches or launch a volley with multiple missiles being up at once - essentially, allowing it to practice the sort of process that will happen in a real launch.

Cotton suggests that if things continue at this rate, North Korea could probably build up a big event: what has been called the "Juche bird," a test of a missile loaded with a live nuclear weapon, possibly above the Pacific Ocean.

"A lot of folks in the U.S. have said North Korea still lacks the capability to put it all together, "Cotton said. "North Korea has made many statements suggesting that they may need to show us once and for all that they do have that capability."